Transboundary climate risks to African dryland livestock economies

Pastoralism and the livestock sector are central to the economies of African dryland countries, contributing between 5% and 30% of national GDP through production and cross‑border trade. Rooted in mobility strategies that historically aligned with rainfall and vegetation, pastoral systems have long provided disaster‑resilient livelihoods, reducing resource degradation, fertilising soils, and safeguarding herds against drought, disease, and conflict.

Today, however, the adaptive capacity of pastoral groups and livestock value chains is increasingly constrained. Beyond climate change, non‑climate pressures—including urban expansion, agricultural encroachment, and mineral and fossil fuel exploration—fragment rangelands and disrupt traditional routes.

This brief examines how these intersecting drivers generate compounding transboundary climate risks (TCRs), from livestock disease outbreaks to trade disruptions and resource degradation. It further highlights how management options at local, national, and regional levels are shaped, and at times undermined, by contradictory socioeconomic, mobility, agricultural, adaptation, and resource governance policies.