Anticipatory action in advance of ‘wicked crises’: insights from a real-time study of people’s lives in Somalia, 2020–2022

In 2020, the SPARC research programme convened panels of Somali farmers and pastoralists to examine how crisis‑affected communities engage in anticipatory action when faced with drought warnings. Focusing on Somaliland, Puntland, and the Middle Shabelle region, the study explored the timing of humanitarian strategies alongside the rationale behind local decision‑making earlier in the crisis trajectory.

Findings reveal that viable anticipatory actions were limited, constrained primarily by the lack of alternative strategies within the local economy. Communities often planned for average rainfall despite forecasts of poor rains, reflecting rational choices shaped by livelihood realities and information networks.

The report underscores that effective support requires long‑term investment in expanding local options, integrating trusted seasonal forecasting into planning, and recognising the diverse trajectories of crises and livelihoods. It cautions against singular anticipatory instruments or funding mechanisms in contexts of 'wicked crises', advocating instead for plural, flexible approaches that align with community realities.