Transboundary climate and adaptation risks in Africa: perceptions from 2021

This report examines how African policy-makers and experts perceive transboundary climate change and adaptation risks (TCARs) with potential multi-country and regional consequences. TCARs arise from climate impacts that cross borders, adaptation decisions in one country affecting others, or mitigation actions constraining adaptation options elsewhere. Pathways of risk transmission include biophysical impacts on ecosystems and resources, financial flows and investment patterns, trade in climate-sensitive goods, cross-border human mobility, and geopolitical dynamics around sovereignty and cooperation.

Through surveys and interviews, SPARC assessed perceptions of 24 TCARs, drawn from national and regional policy frameworks, rating their likelihood within the next decade and severity if realised. Findings highlight the urgent need to strengthen coordination through Regional Economic Communities and align these with African Union agencies and frameworks. Without robust regional implementation, nations remain ill-equipped to manage risks that transcend boundaries. Accompanying infographics illustrate triggers, pathways, and perceptions of TCARs.