Climate change, agricultural policy and poverty reduction - how much do we know?

Projections suggest that, by the end of the 21st century, climate change could have had substantial impact on agricultural production and thence on the scope for reducing poverty. This paper seeks to trace the likely impacts through changes in the quality of the physical asset base, access to assets, and impacts on grain production and on agricultural growth more generally. At moderate degrees of warming, impacts are likely to be negative in some regions, but positive in others, making it important to understand the possible implications for trade between the regions. The short term impacts of climate change, particularly changes in the frequency and severity of adverse weather events, remain uncertain, but their impacts on many developing countries are likely to be negative. There is likely to be time to make appropriate policy responses to some of the longer-term impacts.