The prospects for economic recovery

All this year's forecasts by the international agencies agree on the same gloomy picture that they presented last year, of sluggish growth in the industrial countries continuing into the next five years. This leaves industrial countries with a high margin of unused capacity and high unemployment, with no stimulus for a recovery. What stands out is the doubt expressed by most of the forecasters on whether the path that they project is a credible one for LDCs. Nevertheless, the paper notes that the shift in emphasis towards looking more closely at the results of the forecasting exercise has provided greater clarity on how countries have differed in their ability to respond to the crisis since 1982.